Prediction: American Airlines's Chaos-Causing Baggage Fee

Wow, just when I thought the "major" airlines couldn't screw up the business anymore, American Airlines has proved me wrong by instituting a $15 per piece baggage fee.  This is an idea straight out of an Excel spreadsheet designed by a newly-minted MBA with no concept of value propositions or game theory. 

I can totally see how the baggage fee looks brilliant at first blush. The baggage fee is not shown on the ticketing websites and, therefore, presents an opportunity to add an additional fee on top of the airfare, which is salient when people choose a carrier/flight. Basically, American Airlines (AA) can price at perceived parity with their competitors, but then grab an extra $15-30 of revenue when the customer checks in. If no other carrier follows suit, AA can effectively charge $15-30 more per comparable flight without losing many customers by decoupling the total fee from the salient time-of-purchase posted price. 

So, what's wrong with this approach? Well, three things. First, this kind of shenanigan is perfectly transparent and screams of "gotcha capitalism" - which really honks people off. My favorite (or least favorite, to be consistent) version of this is hidden hotel fees. The most exorbitant are city/state taxes/fees - particularly in New York City, Chicago and San Francisco - and are not included in the price quote when you make a reservation. I blame silly politicians for this bait and switch concept of sticking it to the tourists and business travelers - which I've got to believe has a long term negative impact on tourism (i.e., "I hate getting a hotel in New York because the actual price is oftentimes 50% more than the quoted price").  But the really maddening fees are the "safe fee" and the "gym/spa fees" which previously were included in the price of a room. Now hotels do this really slimy thing where they don't include the fees in the original price quote/reservation, but charge you for various sundries when you check out. If you say nothing, you get screwed. But even if you try fighting these hidden gotcha fees, it's hard to win the argument. Assuming no other airlines are silly enough to institute a baggage fee, people's attitudes toward the AA brand will decrease and AA's ability to charge pricing premiums or realize higher choice rates based on their brand name will decrease over time. I'm guessing that notion isn't in the MBA's awesome baggage surcharge spreadsheet. AA might lose a lot more than it gains by instituting the baggage fee.  

The second reason this is a bone-headed move is that if you look at the outcomes from a competitive standpoint, none of the three most likely competitive reactions are net cash flow positive over the long term. The competitive reaction AA is most likely hoping for is that no other carrier implements the baggage fee and, thus, AA charges a net higher fee for all its flights than competitors for comparable routes. But that doesn't take into account the damage to the AA brand - which will likely increase pricing sensitivity toward the AA brand and also lower consumers' a priori preference for AA, meaning they'll sell less tickets when they go head-to-head against other carriers. The next most desired outcome for AA is probably that all the major carriers match AA's move and, thus, every carrier can charge more for their tickets than they do now. But so what? By going first, AA hurts its brand and risks that others won't follow. Even if we assume that the impact on AA's brand is minimal and other carriers follow, AA has just created the same prisoner's dilemma they created with their frequent flier program: if every carrier implements the same policy, AA has no advantage over the others. But what I hope happens, and is certainly possible, is that Southwest or JetBlue will start running ads that focus on "our price includes everything, including your bags."  Or even better, "Why pay extra for your bags on AA if we're more likely to get them to where your going for free?" (I really like that one, but don't have time to see if Southwest or JetBlue do a better job at getting bags to the same place as passengers.) The bottom line of this will be that AA will need to rescind their baggage fee - which will have a net cash flow negative impact by (a) hurting the AA brand equity, (b) incurring significant set-up and tear down costs for the program and (c) enhance the brand image of competitive carriers. None of these likely outcomes is a net cash flow positive for AA. 

OK, the worst part of AA's baggage fee policy will be to make air travel even more unpleasant than it already is - which is stunning!! First, I'm getting sick to my stomach just imagining all of the "amateur" travelers holding up the check-in lines at airports arguing about the baggage fee, explaining they don't have the money on them to pay for the fee, and generally spreading bad Karma everywhere. That should really help ticket agent turnover - assuming you're trying to make it higher!! Second, as if making the seats smaller as Americans keep getting bigger wasn't awful enough  (another bone-headed Excel spreadsheet decision attempting to maximize capacity), AA has just significantly increased the insanity of passengers taking everything they own into the cabin. Every flight I can remember over the past five years that was 80% full included flight attendants racing around like they were playing some insane whack-a-mole game trying to shove baggage into overhead compartments, which oftentimes ends by tagging a few gigantic bags for jetway luggage handling before the plane could take off. In fact, I almost always check my luggage and just take my laptop briefcase with me anymore because I just don't want to deal with all that chaos on the plane. 

So what's the likely impact of AA's new baggage fee inside the cabin? More people carrying more crap onto the jet that clearly won't fit. More aggravation for travelers. More aggravation for flight attendants and pilots. And more delays. When AA loses baggage that they've now charged extra for (and they will, because there's always some chance baggage gets lost/incorrectly routed), they'll be hell to pay by travelers who paid $15 to not have their bag show up at their destination. 

And heaven forbid the other airlines follow suit with a baggage fee - we can all look forward to even more unpleasant experiences flying in America. I, for one, wish we had better trains in America because I just can't stand flying anymore - and it's only going to get worse until some airline wakes up and figures out that there is a HUGE opportunity in making flying a pleasant experience again. (And, please, make the seats bigger too.)